Giants wide receiver Plaxico Burress will face weapons charges after shooting himself in the leg at a nightclub Friday night. Burress is one in a long list of professional athletes making news in the last few years that contained the words nightclub and gun. These situations happen so frequently that it must almost be statistically significant.
If these guys removed their gun from the equation I suspect there would be less shooting. If they did not go to the nightclub then the odds of gun trouble would diminish greatly. But for some reason they want to go to nightclubs and when they go they want to take a gun, maybe they can't help themselves?
Market participants do things in their portfolios that are the equivalent of going to a nightclub with a gun. This can include intentional lopsided bets, panicking out at the bottom, panicking in at the top, getting talked into doing something by reading an article or listening to someone on TV. Everyone goes to a nightclub now and then but if you don't go often and you don't take your gun with you you're probably going to have fewer problems in your portfolio...hopefully that wasn't too confusing.
The picture is from an hour long hike (each way) through the jungle to quiet little spot near by.
13 comments:
I've already shot myself in the foot.
Anyone have an opinion on the belief that the Baltic Dry Index is most indicative of where our economy is or is going?
For what it's worth, the NBER has finally declared the US to be in recession, since Dec 07. Here is a link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/081201/120108_recession.html
I would rather be him right now though because he is still worth 10's of millions. This up 3%, down 10% has to stop or my nest egg won't be enough to pay the bills.
Good Morning Roger,
Good metaphoric storyline. I enjoyed it.
It brought to mind a recurring line Clint Eastwood’s Dirty Harry movies:
“A man’s just got to Know his Limitations ...
I am still working on refining my limitation as it comes to investing in this market. My invest and hold philosophy is costing me money in that I am not making $$$ now and it is hard to break. Selling strong healthy stocks with the idea that the market is going to break and I can get back in lower is difficult. A problem defined is half solved.
Change... Brazil - what an endorsement by owner of Jet Blue - he is starting a AZUL - his blue airline in Brazil with his money and some major Brazilian players. Heard him talk on CNBC this morning. Always good to have a ray of sunshine breaking through here and there.
I enjoy your blog.
Thanks - Richard
The good news is that by the time the NBER finally declares a recession it is frequently over or close to over
Hah, that was my first thought. I hear "on average recessions last 14 months."
Well, if it started freaking last December, we've only got a couple more months. Hah.
Man. Goldman Sachs at a p/e under 4.....
Let's see. Nightclub:CNBC as gun:mouse?
Roger,
You missed a great chance to quote Johnny Cash on a song about exactly this thing: "Don't take your guns to town son, Leave your guns at home Bill, Don't take your guns to town"
I have been trying to leave my guns at home when it comes to this market. I was all short today, and I suppose leaving my guns home would be to close out now and wait for another good entry (after the next bailout). I just don't have it in me. Tomorrow afternoon I am sure will prove that mother was right... ;-)
I hope you appreciate the fabulous life you have.
@JEC49,
I'd say the BDI is a strong indicator, not certain if I'd say it was the "most" indicative. Closer to home, freight car loadings and truck traffic provide the same sort of feel for the US economy, although to my knowledge, there's no single "index" like the BDI to track, so the info might take a bit of sleuthing to unearth.
In that vein, there's a fairly regular commentor on the Calculated Risk blog who's an OTR trucker, and he says business "sucks", and has, for quite a while (anectdotal, I know).
Jan
The big banks have issues that are called Capital Trusts, Preferreds, et al, and they have an average yield of 10%. One example is BACPRD and its yield is 10.2%.
Now my mom told me to be careful of things that look too good to be true, so how can Bofa and the rest continue to pay these high dividends? How safe are they?
Thanks.
This missive on guns and nightclubs is a gem.
Corollary: Bringing a gun to a nightclub is protection - the financial equivalent of an number of beliefs in protecting the unprotectable (another guy brings a bigger gun.. two guys with the same gun as yours... guy with knife behind you, etc...)
The Credit Default Swap market is just that, an attempt to protect the unprotectable. If you think the company won't make it, you sell the debt! Loading up on CDSs has the gun-in-a-night-club like effect that you THINK you're protected, but you've just added more debt to the system.
Post a Comment