...a reader wants to know.
I'm not sure I'm the guy to ask.
I have been underweight the sector for a long time. That was right in 2004, a push in 2005, started out being wrong this year but is now a push.
The bullish case for tech is based on expected increases in cap-ex. Either you see that or you don't. I'm afraid I don't see it as happening right here right now. If stocks are leading indicators the tech group should have already started to do well based on how long tech bulls have been hyping the cap-ex effect.
I have been bearish on the old guard tech names for a long time as well, which is why I own IYW for clients. I don't think any of the big names can beat the sector so I just own the sector. I also have some semiconductor exposure and Yahoo. I expect I will remain underweight for a while and I doubt I will nail the moment that tech rotates back into a leadership position.
That I expect to miss the bottom is why I have any position at all despite not seeing anything positive in the group.
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6 comments:
I manage a personal portfoio of %5500. After burning my hands in tech slowdown and stock market crash in 2001, i did lot of research and started slowly adopting monthly 100 investment.
Now my portfolio comprises of mainly ETFS.Last year i had 30% returns.
Still i am not confident on this market.I don't want to get into mutual fund market either.
In this situation how will you put your portfolio of 5500.
Just curious !!
I'd be glad to try to answer you but I'm sorry I don't understand what %5500 or "portfolio of 5500 means."
I am reposting my question
I manage a personal portfoio of $5500. After burning my hands in tech slowdown and stock market crash in 2001, i did lot of research and started slowly adopting monthly 100 investment.
Now my portfolio comprises of mainly ETFS.Last year i had 30% returns.
Still i am not confident on this market.I don't want to get into mutual fund market either.
In this situation how will you put your portfolio of $5500.
Just curious !!
I don't think I have a great answer.
The biggest concern I would have for your account would be the drag created by commissions.
Buying four ETFs at $10 commission each creates a measurable drag on returns.
30% is great but how many ETFs did you own? Were you diversified or did you bet well on a couple of themes?
From a cost effectiveness standpoint OEFs that you don't have to pay for makes the most sense, IMO.
Sorry if that is not answer you wanted.
Hi Roger- Thanks for the comment.I am great fan of your column.I always talk about your columns with my wife and relatives.
Coming to point , i have portfolio of
1.EnergySelectSPDR - 2 qty
2.iShares DJ US Real Estate-1.65 qty
3.iShares MSCI Emerging MKTS-.5606 qty
4.iShares MSCI Brazil-26.83 qty
5.iShares MSCI Korea - 21.8 qty
6.iShares S&P Latin America 17 qty
qty means -quantity
I have enrolled into Sharebuilder monthly standard plan.
Can you explain more on this? I am not sure about OEFS.
From a cost effectiveness standpoint OEFs that you don't have to pay for makes the most sense, IMO.
Thanks again!!
OEF= open end mutual fund, the thing you said you would prefer not to use.
$4 a trade at Sharebuilder is a great way to go.
Obviously if/when emerging markets cool down or correct your portfolio will go down a lot. ILF and EWZ are practically the same thing.
Yuor account will do great when emerging does well and your account will get crushed in emerging corrects.
My comments above ahve nothing to do with forward looking analysis but a simple asset allocation/diversification issue.
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