Thursday, November 04, 2004
Blogging From Home Not Helping Pharma
I am working at home today which is nice because I really don't like having to go to Phoenix, but that's where the paycheck is.
Anyway, the Bush lift for big American Drug Stocks didn't last too long did it? I made a comment yesterday about avoiding the group. I clearly had no knowledge about the Pfizer news today but this theme is very simple and very obvious. I have been truly shocked over the months at the number of managers and strategists I see and read that will tout the group.
If you have read this blog for a while you know the value I place on keep big picture analysis very simple.
The market seems to be struggling to find a direction today but what is very constructive is that it is not immediately giving back yesterday's gain. I am skeptical but hopeful. I do think that just like every other election year, I have been writing about this for months, the election is not the thing. The market can now go on trying to reconcile all the other issues in front of it.
Ben Pedley from CNBC Asia has been talking about a dollar selloff with a Bush win because he is so disliked around the world. That seems to be happening. That favors gold. As a quick refresher, gold is denominated in dollars. Everything else being equal as the dollar declines gold has to go up in price. Of course everything else being equal is quite empty because things don't work that way but in practical terms it will help the yellow metal. For that matter it will help any commodity that trades in dollars. Another asset class that would do well is foreign bonds. I access that part of the market for my clients through closed end bond funds. They are cheap, easy to trade and help create a nice counter strategy for your US holdings.
Anyway, the Bush lift for big American Drug Stocks didn't last too long did it? I made a comment yesterday about avoiding the group. I clearly had no knowledge about the Pfizer news today but this theme is very simple and very obvious. I have been truly shocked over the months at the number of managers and strategists I see and read that will tout the group.
If you have read this blog for a while you know the value I place on keep big picture analysis very simple.
The market seems to be struggling to find a direction today but what is very constructive is that it is not immediately giving back yesterday's gain. I am skeptical but hopeful. I do think that just like every other election year, I have been writing about this for months, the election is not the thing. The market can now go on trying to reconcile all the other issues in front of it.
Ben Pedley from CNBC Asia has been talking about a dollar selloff with a Bush win because he is so disliked around the world. That seems to be happening. That favors gold. As a quick refresher, gold is denominated in dollars. Everything else being equal as the dollar declines gold has to go up in price. Of course everything else being equal is quite empty because things don't work that way but in practical terms it will help the yellow metal. For that matter it will help any commodity that trades in dollars. Another asset class that would do well is foreign bonds. I access that part of the market for my clients through closed end bond funds. They are cheap, easy to trade and help create a nice counter strategy for your US holdings.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)





1 comments:
Roger,
I’ve enjoyed your blog quite a bit over the last month or so that I’ve been reading it. Your insights are well appreciated. The “stay away from Big Pharma” mantra is not rocket science at all. Most stocks in this sector have been in clear downtrends since the beginning of the year. It is clear that technical analysis should at least have a part in everyone’s take on the markets.
Most analysts have noticed the clear breakout from the S&P500 and the close iffy breakout on the Nasdaq. They claim this is great news. We should take a look at when these breakouts occurred. They occurred during an election and I am guaranteeing there was some manipulation going on. So, I would be careful about looking for a renewed bull market like some of the analysts.
I highly doubt that the dollar is in a decline because Bush has been reelected. There are obvious reasons for a dollar decline, which have been discussed countless times elsewhere. Individuals in charge of large dollar reserves for their respective countries are smart individuals who, I believe, would not get emotionally involved. The dollar is going to decline that is for sure, but not because of dislike.
Again, keep up the good work. I look forward to your blog on a daily basis.
LB
http://traderwizard.com/blog/
http://www.securitytrader.com
Post a Comment